Real Work. Real Stakes.

# IPO Prospectus Analysis — PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)
## Instruction Prompt for PDF Processing Application

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## ROLE & OBJECTIVE

You are a senior equity research analyst. You have been given the full IPO
prospectus of **PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO)**, filed February
2023 on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

Analyze the entire prospectus and produce a **15-slide investor presentation**
for buy-side equity analysts evaluating IPO participation or coverage initiation.

Each slide must:
- Open with a **declarative headline insight** (a conclusion, not a label)
- Contain **layered analysis** — surface the "so what", not just the data
- Include a **visual element instruction** (chart type, table, or diagram)
- Stay **visually breathable**: max 6 data points or bullets per visual zone
- Flag missing data explicitly as `[DATA NOT FOUND IN PROSPECTUS]`
- Never estimate, interpolate, or hallucinate figures

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## SLIDE STRUCTURE & ANALYTICAL REQUIREMENTS

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### SLIDE 1 — COVER & DEAL SNAPSHOT
**Extract:** Company full name, ticker, exchange, IPO date, offer price range,
total proceeds (IDR and USD equivalent), greenshoe option size, use of proceeds
summary (one line), lead underwriters, and bookrunners.

**Analyze:** Calculate implied market cap at offer price (low / mid / high).
State free float % post-IPO. Note Pertamina's retained ownership stake.

**Visual:** Deal term sheet in clean two-column layout. Pertamina group
structure diagram showing PGE's position within the parent entity.

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### SLIDE 2 — INVESTMENT THESIS
**Extract:** Core business description, principal competitive advantages as
stated in the prospectus, strategic objectives section.

**Analyze:** Synthesize into exactly **5 opinionated thesis statements**.
Each must be a forward-looking claim supported by a specific data point from
the prospectus. Structure as: *[Claim] — because [evidence].*

Example format:
> "PGEO is structurally insulated from fuel price volatility — 100% of
> generation is geothermal with zero feedstock cost exposure."

**Visual:** 5-point thesis card layout. One supporting metric per thesis,
displayed as a callout number.

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### SLIDE 3 — BUSINESS MODEL & REVENUE MECHANICS
**Extract:** PPA structure with PLN, take-or-pay provisions, contract tenors,
tariff rates per working area, USD vs. IDR billing split, steam supply vs.
electricity sales revenue breakdown.

**Analyze:** Assess revenue visibility — what % of forward revenue is
contracted vs. merchant? Identify the single biggest revenue concentration
risk. Calculate blended tariff per MWh if disclosed.

**Visual:** Revenue flow diagram (geothermal resource → steam → power → PLN
→ PGE revenue). Bar chart showing USD vs. IDR revenue split. PPA tenor
timeline showing contract expiry schedule by working area.

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### SLIDE 4 — ASSET PORTFOLIO DEEP DIVE
**Extract:** All 7 Working Areas — Kamojang, Lahendong, Ulubelu, Karaha,
Lumut Balai, Hululais, Suoh Sekincau. For each: location, installed capacity
(MWe), contracted capacity, operational status, business model (steam supply
or own-and-operate), PPA counterparty, and concession expiry.

**Analyze:** Rank assets by revenue contribution. Identify which assets are
underutilized (installed vs. contracted gap). Flag any concessions expiring
within 10 years.

**Visual:** Indonesia map with asset pins and capacity labels. Summary table:
Asset | MWe Installed | MWe Contracted | Model | PPA Expiry | % of Revenue.

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### SLIDE 5 — GROWTH PIPELINE & CAPACITY EXPANSION
**Extract:** Planned capacity additions through 2027 and 2030, greenfield
project list, brownfield expansion projects, capital committed vs. uncommitted,
RUPTL alignment, government geothermal development targets.

**Analyze:** Calculate implied CAGR from current installed capacity to 2030
target. Assess execution risk — how many projects are past exploration stage
vs. still pre-drilling? What % of growth capex is already funded by IPO proceeds?

**Visual:** Capacity build-up waterfall chart (current → brownfield additions →
greenfield additions → 2030 target). Project pipeline Gantt-style timeline
showing stage gates (exploration / drilling / construction / COD).

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### SLIDE 6 — FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE & QUALITY OF EARNINGS
**Extract:** FY2020, FY2021, FY2022 — Revenue, Gross Profit, EBITDA, EBIT,
Net Income, EBITDA margin, Net margin. Depreciation & amortization breakdown.
Any one-off or non-recurring items disclosed.

**Analyze:** Identify margin trend direction and explain the driver. Strip out
any non-recurring items to show normalized EBITDA. Assess earnings quality —
is cash conversion strong? Is revenue growth volume-driven or tariff-driven?

**Visual:** Dual-axis bar + line chart: Revenue bars (3 years) with EBITDA
margin line overlay. Earnings bridge showing gross profit → EBITDA → net
income with labeled deductions.

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### SLIDE 7 — COST STRUCTURE & OPERATING LEVERAGE
**Extract:** Steam field operating costs, royalty payments (% of revenue),
D&A by asset, parent company recharge/management fees, employee costs,
general & administrative expenses. Fixed vs. variable cost breakdown if
disclosed.

**Analyze:** Calculate cost per MWh produced. Identify the largest cost line
and its trend. Assess operating leverage — what happens to EBITDA margin if
revenue grows 10% with costs fixed? Flag any related-party cost items that
may not be arm's-length.

**Visual:** Cost waterfall from revenue to EBITDA (labeled each cost block).
Pie chart of cost composition. Cost per MWh trend line (3 years).

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### SLIDE 8 — CAPEX, BALANCE SHEET & LEVERAGE
**Extract:** FY2020–FY2022 capex (maintenance vs. growth split), total assets,
total debt (by currency and instrument), net debt, equity, net debt/EBITDA,
interest coverage ratio, debt maturity schedule, any covenant disclosures.

**Analyze:** Calculate capex intensity (capex as % of revenue, capex per MW
added). Assess currency mismatch risk — USD debt serviced by what % USD
revenue? Is the balance sheet capacity sufficient to fund the growth pipeline
without re-leveraging post-IPO?

**Visual:** Debt maturity ladder (bar chart by year). Net debt/EBITDA trend.
Capex split (maintenance vs. growth) as stacked bars across 3 years.

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### SLIDE 9 — CASH FLOW & CAPITAL ALLOCATION
**Extract:** Operating cash flow, investing cash flow, financing cash flow
(FY2020–FY2022). Free cash flow (OCF minus capex). Dividend policy or
payout commitment as stated in prospectus. IPO proceeds deployment timeline.

**Analyze:** Calculate FCF conversion (FCF / EBITDA). Identify the FCF
inflection point — at what capacity level does the business turn strongly
free-cash-flow positive? Assess whether dividend commitments are sustainable
given growth capex needs.

**Visual:** Cash flow bridge (EBITDA → OCF → FCF, with working capital and
tax labeled). Stacked area chart of OCF vs. capex over 3 years showing FCF
gap or surplus.

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### SLIDE 10 — VALUATION FRAMEWORK
**Extract:** Any valuation references in the prospectus (fairness opinion,
appraiser NAV, comparable transaction multiples cited by underwriters).

**Analyze:** Build three valuation lenses:
1. **EV/EBITDA** — Apply 10x, 12x, 14x to LTM EBITDA. Show implied share
   price range vs. IPO offer price.
2. **Peer Comparison** — Compare to Star Energy, Contact Energy, Ormat
   Technologies, and Indonesian utility peers on EV/EBITDA and P/E.
3. **DCF Sanity Check** — State the implied WACC and growth assumptions
   needed to justify the IPO mid-price. Flag if assumptions appear aggressive.

**Visual:** Football field valuation chart (horizontal bar per methodology
showing low/mid/high range). Peer comparison scatter plot (EV/EBITDA vs.
EBITDA margin).

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### SLIDE 11 — ESG, ENERGY TRANSITION & STRATEGIC POSITIONING
**Extract:** Carbon emission disclosures, renewable energy certificates,
green financing instruments (green bonds, sustainability-linked loans),
Pertamina group net zero targets, JETP or government decarbonization
framework references, any third-party ESG ratings or certifications.

**Analyze:** Quantify the carbon advantage vs. coal and gas peers (tonnes
CO2/MWh). Assess whether ESG credentials support a valuation premium.
Identify greenwashing risks — are the claims audited and specific?

**Visual:** Carbon intensity comparison bar chart (PGEO vs. coal, gas,
solar, wind benchmarks). ESG scorecard table with evidence rating
(Disclosed / Partial / Not Disclosed).

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### SLIDE 12 — RISK MATRIX
**Extract:** All risks listed in the Risk Factors section. Group into:
Regulatory, Operational, Financial, Market, and ESG/Environmental.

**Analyze:** For each of the **top 10 material risks**, assess:
- Likelihood (Low / Medium / High)
- Financial impact if realized (Low / Medium / High)
- Mitigation quality (Strong / Partial / None)
- Whether it is unique to PGEO or sector-wide

Highlight the **3 risks with the weakest mitigations** as priority concerns.

**Visual:** 2x2 risk heat map (Likelihood vs. Impact). Risk register table:
Risk | Category | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | PGE-Specific?

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### SLIDE 13 — GOVERNANCE, MANAGEMENT & RELATED PARTIES
**Extract:** Board of Directors and Board of Commissioners composition,
CEO and CFO profiles (tenure, background), independent commissioner ratio,
audit committee structure, all related-party transactions disclosed
(counterparty, nature, value, terms).

**Analyze:** Flag any related-party transactions that appear non-arm's-length
or where PGE may be disadvantaged vs. Pertamina parent. Assess board
independence quality. Identify key-man risk.

**Visual:** Org chart (board + management layer). Related-party transaction
summary table: Party | Transaction Type | Annual Value | Terms | Risk Flag.

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### SLIDE 14 — BEAR VS. BULL SCENARIO ANALYSIS
**Analyze:** Construct two fully-argued scenarios.

**BULL CASE — 3 arguments:**
Each must cite a specific prospectus data point and quantify the upside.
State the implied share price if the bull case materializes.

**BEAR CASE — 3 arguments:**
Each must cite a specific risk, quantify the downside scenario, and explain
why the market may be underpricing it. State the implied share price.

**Base Case:** Restate IPO mid-price and the assumptions required to sustain it.

**Visual:** Scenario comparison table (Revenue / EBITDA / Net Income / EPS /
Target Price across Bear / Base / Bull). Sensitivity tornado chart showing
which variable (tariff, capacity utilization, WACC, IDR/USD rate) has the
largest impact on NAV per share.

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### SLIDE 15 — VERDICT & KEY METRICS SUMMARY
**Analyze:** Deliver a clear, opinionated analyst verdict:
- **Participate / Pass / Watch** recommendation with one-paragraph rationale
- State the **single biggest reason to own** and the **single biggest reason
  to avoid**
- Define a price level at which the risk/reward becomes clearly attractive

**Extract:** Compile the master financial summary table — FY2020 / FY2021 /
FY2022 actuals from the prospectus.

**Visual:** KPI dashboard — 12 key metrics displayed as stat cards
(Revenue, EBITDA Margin, Net Debt/EBITDA, Installed Capacity MWe,
Contracted MWe, Blended Tariff $/MWh, FCF Conversion, Free Float %,
IPO Proceeds, Primary Use of Proceeds, Offer Price, Implied Market Cap).
Full financial summary table below.

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## GLOBAL OUTPUT RULES

| Rule | Requirement |
|------|-------------|
| Data sourcing | Extract only from the prospectus — no external data |
| Missing data | Flag as `[DATA NOT FOUND IN PROSPECTUS]` — never fill gaps |
| Currency | Use USD where disclosed; apply prospectus-stated IDR/USD rate |
| Headline format | Every slide opens with a declarative insight, not a topic label |
| Visual density | Each visual zone: max 6 data points, adequate white space |
| Analytical depth | Show the "so what" — every chart needs a one-line takeaway |
| Consistency | All figures must reconcile across slides — no contradictions |